Loge Level

Do Arkansas fans know about this? 

http://www.kyproud.com/

Well, the season could have come completely unraveled after Tuesday night’s debacle, but the Cats demonstrated their bouncebackability and gritted out a 67-63 win against the rejuvenated Louisiana State Tigers.

The win keeps alive our slim hopes of receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament and keeps the Cats in the driver’s seat for the East 2-seed in the SEC Tournament.

According to RealTimeRPI.com, the RPI is now up to 74.

Onward and upward!

Is this how Hoops Weiss sees it? (Link)

A Sea of Blue has already provided a pretty thorough criticism of this column so I won’t do that here.  However, I couldn’t resist making a quick Photoshop.  And can’t we all see Patrick Paterson saying “There’s just one thing… I play, Coach stays. He goes, I go.”

A few random notes after last night’s loss.

• UK has proven that Billy Reed is an incredible reverse predictor.  On December 17th he attacks Billy G and the Cats go on to turn the season around.  Then this Monday he praises Gillispie writing that he should be considered for coach of the year and we all know what happend at Vandy.

• After going quiet for 35 days BillyGSucks finally gets a chance to post again.

• Somehow we moved up in the RPI last night and for the first time all season we are now ahead of Minnesota.

• And at least we’re all not IU fans.

Indiana University men’s basketball coach Kelvin Sampson “repeatedly” provided “false or misleading information” to the school and NCAA investigators, according to a list of five major violations the NCAA is alleging against IU.

The “notice of allegations” sent to IU president Michael McRobbie on Feb. 8 and released publicly today alleges that Sampson knowingly violated telephone recruiting restrictions, and then lied about it. The restrictions were imposed because of the coach’s NCAA violations while at Oklahoma. (Link)

Wow.

The play that really summed up the evening for me was when AJ Stewart blocked Andrew Ogilvy’s shot and the ball inexplicably went through the basket.

Silver lining: According to RealTimeRPI.com, we’re up to No. 82 in the RPI, despite playing the ugliest half of Kentucky basketball I’ve ever scene. [Caveat: I’m young enough to have no recollection of the 1984 Georgetown game.] Perhaps Jay Bilas had a point when he suggested scrapping that thing.

Chin up. Saturday’s game can’t come soon enough.

This has already been noted at A Sea of Blue and Kentucky Sports Radio, but I wanted to follow up on last week’s post in which I took issue with Jay Bilas’ February 2 comment that there was no way Kentucky could earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Candidly, I do this only to illustrate that I’m not a total homer: non-Blue-Goggle-wearing people now believe Kentucky can earn an at-large bid. Andy Glockner put the Wildcats on his Bubble Watch (as he said he would last week). And Courier-Journal columnist Rich Bozich wrote Sunday that an at-large bid was a possibility for the Cats.

Even Bilas now seems to agree. While he stopped well short of predicting the Cats would make the tournament, on February 9’s College Gameday he conceded that a Kentucky team that finished 12-4 in conference play would have to be considered for an at-large bid.

That said, I’m not near as confident as the KSR guys (see here and here) that the Cats will finish 12-4 in SEC play. They’re certainly capable (I’ve written as much). But we’re underdogs tonight against Vanderbilt and we’ll certainly be underdogs when we visit Tennessee. If we drop those two games, that leaves no margin for error. The home games against surging Arkansas and Florida are no gimmes, and neither is the trip to South Carolina. I won’t be surprised if we win all three of those games, but I won’t be surprised if we drop one either. Especially if you consider our depth — or lack there of — and the luck we’ve had with injuries this year. Not trying to be negative here; just pointing out that going 6-2 through the back-half of the SEC schedule is far from automatic. It goes without saying that a win tonight would be massive boost to the Cats’ tourney chances.

Onward and upward!

What sticks out most during UK’s five-game winning streak is that they’re winning games they have no business winning.

A couple months ago, we were blaming a number of things for these Cats’ failures. They lost to Gardner-Webb, UAB, Houston and San Diego. There were plenty of excuses being made for losses that could not be excused.

In no particular order: Tubby’s recruiting, injuries, Tubby’s departure, Billy Gillispie’s lineup and playing time decisions, lack of chemistry between the new coach and the old players, etc. Did I mention Tubby’s recruiting?

Now, you won’t find any excuses being made. Jodie Meeks hasn’t played in three games — hasn’t mattered. Ramel Bradley gets the flu, then a concussion, and misses most of two games — doesn’t matter. Derrick Jasper still can’t run or jump like this — doesn’t matter. Joe Crawford’s feet feel like knives are shredding his arches with every step — doesn’t matter. Ramon Harris slams to the floor with a hip pointer — doesn’t matter. Michael Porter plays a lot — doesn’t matter.

There has been some good luck, although the scales have not been balanced. Richard Hendrix, a beast and one of the best players in a depleted SEC, must have received a virus-o-gram from Bradley and couldn’t play on Saturday. Auburn has no fans (read near bottom) and even fewer players who can accurately shoot the leather. Georgia’s defense was only topped in ineptitude by Auburn.

Still, without Bradley and Meeks – and with a hobbled Crawford only able to play in short spurts because of cramps and a foot condition that makes every step burn — the Cats had no business winning on the road at Georgia or Auburn.

But the Cats are finding ways to win close games. (Aren’t they all close?) And a lot of the credit goes to players emerging. Perry Stevenson has been a force. Patrick Patterson has been dominant. Bradley and Crawford are shooting the ball as fine as I can remember any Wildcat the last five, maybe 10, seasons. When Joe shoots, it seems automatic.

You expect good things to happen, don’t fear for the worst, and there are no longer any excuses.

The two SEC games they lost — at Mississippi State (Vanardo’s a hacker) and at Florida (let’s hope UK benefits the same way with borderline calls when the Gators visit Rupp) — the excuses were at least tempered.

But, most importantly, the message has been sent that there will no longer be inexcusable losses.

With football signing day having come and gone, I wanted to take a look at Kentucky’s last six recruiting classes to see how the members of those classes performed over the last two seasons — Kentucky’s most successful seasons in decades.

I chose to go all the way back to the 2002 class (Guy Morriss’ last class) because members of that class who redshirted were eligible during Kentucky’s 2006 season. (Plus, the furthest Rivals’* recruiting ranking archives go back is 2002, so that worked out well.)

First, a macro analysis (and I use that word loosely). I want to see where Kentucky’s last six classes rank, where Kentucky’s 2006 and 2007 opponents’ classes rank, and how Kentucky did against those opponents. [Hat tip to SMQ for the inspiration for this. If you want to see something like what’s below, but for all the Bowl Championship Series schools, by all means, click here.] Crappy Word tables and ‘analysis’ after the jump!

(more…)

A funny picture on the CJ today, from the looks of it last night’s game was in Rupp and Chuck Hayes somehow managed to play.  It might not be up long so here is a screen grab.

http://courierjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

I’m a couple of days late posting this, but — in case you missed it — Jay Bilas dismissed Kentucky’s chances of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament Saturday night on College Gameday.

The segment started with Digger Phelps big-upping the Cats and predicting they would have a strong finish to the season. Then it was Bilas’ turn to speak:

I don’t think there’s any way that Kentucky can get in unless they win their conference tournament. They’re ten and nine.

He went on to say that Kentucky simply played too poorly in the first half of the season to be considered for an at-large berth. (I would have transcribed all of it but I don’t have access to my DVR right now). He noted that the Selection Committee will not simply ignore the first half of the season, which is true I suppose, but plenty of teams have started well and not made the tournament. (Last year’s Clemson team springs to mind. And this year’s Ole Miss and Vanderbilt teams are certainly no locks to make the tournament despite each going undefeated in non-conference play.) The Selection Committee certainly rewards teams that finish strong more so than it does teams that start fast.

Overall, I don’t really have a beef with what Bilas said. After all, we do have some terrible losses, we are ten and nine, and our RPI is still in the hundreds. An at-large bid is unlikely. And that’s putting it nicely.

That said, I have a hard time believing an at-large bid is definitely out of our reach. And writing that doesn’t make me a total homer. Joe Lunardi seemingly agrees, as does Andy Glockner, who writes ESPN.com’s weekly College Basketball Bubble Watch (”Kentucky is starting to make some noise. We’ll check back on the Cats next week.” [Link]). And then there’s SI.com’s Luke Wynn, who — bizarrely — has Kentucky listed under “On the Cusp, Tier II” in his weekly power rankings. [Link] If you add up the teams in front of us, he’s got us at No. 33.

Suffice it to say, I think there are scenarios in which Kentucky can earn an at-large bid.

Eli gets his. Hey-yo Rick Bozich!

From December 5, 2006:

My guess is their reasoning had something to do with SEC tradition and the league’s record of producing quality NFL players. You know the names — quarterbacks who are turning the NFL upside down, like Rex Grossman, Eli Manning, Tim Couch, Eric Zeier and Heath Shuler.

PS. And what about Kentucky Athletics Director Mitch Barnhart in Peyton’s booth?

One time UK celebrity fan Eddie Montgomery is playing a concert for Tennessee’s Orange and White game.  (Link)

Country singers Taylor Swift and Montgomery Gentry will headline a Neyland Stadium concert the day before Tennessee’s Orange and White spring game.

Tennessee athletic director Mike Hamilton compares the football spring game to “midnight madness” in basketball and says the inaugural pre-game Gridiron Bash will boost the fan experience.

This decision is kind of hard to reconcile with Montgomery’s previous comments concerning Kentucky football. (Link)

I love (Kentucky) football and I’ve taken a lot of grief from a lot of guys for a long time over that, especially those guys from Tennessee. They rag on me all the time during football.

Kentucky fans being Kentucky fans, we’ve been discussing the odds of the Wildcats making the NCAA tournament since the upset of Vanderbilt (home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego and zero road wins be damned). And now that the Cats have strung back-to-back wins together for the first time since November, non-Blue-Goggle-wearing observers are joining in.

In his chat on ESPN.com earlier today, certified Bracketologist Joe Lunardi had this to say about the Cats’ NCAA chances:

Kurt (Wilmington, NC): Joe, please tell me there is some hope for my Kentucky Wildcats. At 9-9, with 11 games to go before the SEC tourney, could the Wildcats sneak into the dance with a strong finish? They are finally getting healthy and are playing well right now. How would they have to finish to receive consideration? Hopefully their strong history plays a role in voters minds.

Joe Lunardi: (2:15 PM ET ) I suspect this will be an ongoing question as January churns toward March. My best guess is that Kentucky needs to post more than just a winning SEC record, but something in the 11- or 12-win range. The ‘Cats then need to avoid any kind of potential “bubble loss” in the conference tournament.

[Link]

I think 10-6 and a couple of wins in the SEC Tournament would be enough to get us in, but then again, I’m not an objective observer or a Bracketologist. And I do think 10-6 (and even 11-5) is doable. No tempering expectations for me, thank you. Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!

Richard Justice, in a column about college football coaches takes a shot at Gillispie.

Sometimes, coaches negotiate deals and announce they’re happy to be staying put. Only they never sign the new deal and keep listening to offers. Hey, Billy Gillispie, know anyone like that?

Kentucky Wildcats fans have plenty to be encouraged about, and I’ll be the first to admit that I was among the first to proudly proclaim the Cats had turned the corner. And they have.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — the corner they turned was a meager hurdle in the lanscape of expectations that generally accompany this storied program. The Cats are still only 8-9, 2-2 in the Southeastern Conference. Yes, Tuesday was the first time they’ve had 100 percent of their roster at Coach Billy Gillispie’s disposal, and I can see them rattling off eight or nine wins in their final 12 SEC contests.

But the Cats still have one more roadblock to overcome before we seriously start crowning them SEC contenders and on the NCAA bubble. UK has not won a road game this season. They’ve come close against very competitive teams their last two times away against Mississippi State and Florida, so they’re on the brink of turning that corner, too.

But the Cats are far from being seriously considered for the NCAA bubble. Sure, the NCAA selection committee may give the Cats some sympathy given they played their first 16 games with some combination of a diminished roster. If they’re playing like a 20-8 team down the stretch and are 10-3 with a healthy roster they may get a bid after a couple wins in the SEC Tournament and an 18-14 or a 19-13 record. But even then, their RPI (144th) is going to spell R.I.P.

And until they beat a Georgia, a Vandy, a Tennessee or a South Carolina on the road then that scenario is not a realistic expectation.

And there’s not a home game that should be considered a given with this team. A loss to LSU, Alabama or USC would be a huge disappointment at this stage but not a shock. The Cats have to fight for every point, every rebound and every win.

Even if we assume the Cats win the home games they are supposed to (USC and Alabama), win the road games they are supposed to (Auburn and LSU), lose to Tennessee and Vandy on the road, split their tough home games (Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Florida) and split the rest of their road games (Georgia and USC), it will have been a great salvage of the season. Their final regular season record would be 15-14 and their conference record would be 9-7.

So, winning on the road will become of utmost importance, especially stealing games at Vandy, Georgia and USC plus getting revenge against Florida in Rupp on Senior Day, which would catch the nation’s attention on the last day of the regular season.

Optimistically, yes, we could be looking at a 17-12 record heading to CATlanta. And an internal optimist might even predict an 18- or 19-win regular season. But, let’s see the Cats win on the road before we expect this .500 team to finish any better than 9-7 in the SEC, which would be a great accomplishment.

Then, let’s win the SEC Tourney and erase all doubt!