Loge Level

Bob Castellini is showing he has a little Steinbrenner in him. His lack of patience isn’t as famous as MFY owner George Steibrenner, but to those who have worked for him that lack of patience is legendary.

Wayne Krivsky didn’t deserve to be fired. The simple fact is Castellini probably wanted former Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty to replace Dan O’Brien when he bought the team almost three years ago, but he couldn’t get him until this year because Jocketty was under contract in St. Louis.But Krivsky did a wonderful job reshaping the roster after all of Jim Bowden and O’Brien’s dead-weight contracts (Ken Griffey Jr., Eric Milton). He was brilliant at picking up young guys (Hamilton, Phillips, Volquez, Votto, Burton, Lincoln, Bailey, Bruce) for relatively nothing and stood firm on the few prospects the organization had from the previous management. His trades were often lacking, but he was always dealing from a position of having too many outfielders and teams not willing to offer enough because they knew Krivsky had to unload Austin Kearns/Adam Dunn or Josh Hamilton/Dunn because no one will touch Griffey and Castellini won’t allow Griffey to be traded until he hits No. 600 as a Red.

OK, I apologize for the winter of inactivity. Of course, plenty of transactions, trades, and prospect happenings that I live for occurred over the five months since Moxie’s previous post, but I found myself more capitivated by a certain basketball team than a relatively quiet offseason for my favorite baseball team.

But I promise nearly as frequent Moxie posts the next six months, from the resurrections of Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez to the decline of Miguel Tejada and Jason Giambi. Super prospects Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Jacoby Ellsbury, Phil Hughes, Evan Longoria and Colby Rasmus will be discussed. Hopefully, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens will not.

A new baseball season begins Tuesday in Tokyo at 6 p.m. local time – at the break of dawn in the eastern United States and closing time on the west coast — with the defending champion Boston Red Sox taking on the Oakland A’s. So, I’ll have a bowl of Cap’n Crunch instead of a bottle of Bud to accompany the first pitch.

Opening Day is a Holy Day for Moxie Legion. Most years it’s a day-long event. Grill some burgers, drink some beer. Watch the Cincinnati Reds on one TV, the Red Sox on another, maybe a third game afterward. Then, the NCAA national championship follows in the evening.

But the NCAA Tournament is running a week behind this season and the Sox are starting the season overseas. So, I’ll watch with interest alone on Tuesday and Wednesday. But before Dustin Pedroia takes the first pitch of the season from Joe Blanton, check out some predictions after the jump. (more…)

The big guy above has plenty of reason to smile.

I once wondered if I’d ever live to see the Boston Red Sox win a World Series. Those questions, dreams and prayers were answered three years ago when a bunch of idiots did the improbable. (more…)

Dusty (Pedroia)is the Royal Rooters rally cry
Dusty is the tune they always sung
Dusty echoed April through October nights
After serenading Stahl, Dinneen and Young
Dusty is a maiden with a sparkling eye
Dusty is a maiden with a love
She doesn’t know the meaning of her sight
She’s got a comment full of love
And sometimes when the game is on the line
Dusty always carried them away
Up the road from “Third Base” to Huntington
The boys will always sing and sway

Dusty, “Nuf Ced” McGreevey shouted
We’re not here to mess around
Boston, you know we love you madly
Hear the crowd roar to your sound
Don’t blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn’t live without you
Dusty, you are the only only only
Don’t blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn’t live without you
Boston, you are the only only only
Don’t blame us if we ever doubt you
You know we couldn’t live without you
Red Sox, you are the only only only …

How sweet. I don’t expect the Red Sox to make another 2004-esque comeback, but Thursday’s performance by Beckett was vintage and gave a ray of hope. You have to expect Curt Schilling to pitch like his old self, the John Wayne character before Beckett, if only because he’s always pitched best with his team’s back against the wall. But with Daisuke Matsuzaka slated for Game 7 I don’t like the odds of winning three in a row.

Some thoughts with the Sox finally cruising for once:

Who would I rather start Game 7 (if we get that far)? Well, other than Beckett, who obviously can’t start on 2 days rest but might be available for the 6th and 7th innings when Dice-K predictably bows out after 4 2/3 innings, why not Jonathan Papelbon. Well, it might have been a more realistic pipedream had Tito Francona not used him for the 9th inning on Thursday, but who better? Sure, they might need him on Sautrday, but why not leave open the possibility by pitching anbody else with a 6-run lead on Thursday? I’d still rather see Dice-K than Tim wkefield or Jon Lester, but not by much, but I hope everybody but Schilling is available in relief beginning as early as the 4th inning.

On to Joe Torre, the poor sap. Seriously, nobody feels less sorry for the old man than Moxie, but this was as predictable as a Coco Crisp GIDP. The MFY didn’t want him back, but they do want the Joe Torre loyalists (most importantly, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez) to return and needed to show the MFY skipper respect to at least have a shot at signing each.

So, they made a half-hearted offer so they could claim to those free agents that they wanted him back and tried to keep him. I’d love to call them each dumb, but even Grady Little could read between these lines. It’s going to take one of two guys. Joe Girardi, who played with Pettitte, Rivera, Posada and Derek Jeter, will be able to keep some semblence of sanity. Don Mattingly might be able to keep a couple of the guys in stable.

Any other manager and you’re going to see a major overhaul. The MFY are already in store for a transition period — Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will take over for Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte — but having to replace Rivera, Clemens, Posada, A-Rod and Pettitte this year and Mussina, Giambi, Abreu and Damon in 2009 will be a major transition even if more money is freed up in that span than any other team spends.

Oh, and before I forget … Go Cats!!!

I usually leave the UK football posts to the diehards, but Pat Forde’s latest column on ESPN.com’s college football page got me thinking …

What college football team has had a better full season (13 games, including postseason) dating back to last season?

The Cats are 11-2 since last year’s 49-0 loss to LSU with losses against Tennessee in the 2006 regular season finale and two weeks ago against South Carolina. Only Ohio State (12-1, 7-0 in 2007), Hawaii (12-1, 7-0), LSU (12-1, 6-1) and Boise State (12-1, 5-1) have a better record over their last 13 games:

OSU 12-1 (7-0)
Hawaii 12-1 (7-0)
LSU 12-1 (6-1)
Boise St. 12-1 (5-1)
BC 11-2 (7-0)
USF 11-2 (6-0)
OU 11-2 (6-1)
Va. Tech 11-2 (6-1)
UK 11-2 (6-1)
Cincy 11-2 (6-1)
Wisconsin 11-2 (5-2)
Florida 11-2 (4-2)
BYU 11-2 (4-2)
Arizona State 10-3 (7-0)
Texas Tech10-3 (6-1)
Cal 10-3 (5-1)
USC 10-3 (5-1)
WVU 10-3 (5-1)
Auburn 10-3 (5-2)
Penn St. 10-3 (5-2)
Troy 10-3 (4-2)
Kansas 9-4 (6-0)
S. Carolina 9-4 (6-1)
UVa. 9-4 (6-1)
UGa. 9-4 (5-2)
Michigan 9-4 (5-2)
Rutgers 9-4 (4-2)
Wyoming 9-4 (4-2)
UofL 9-4 (4-3)

UK shows up ahead of super powers like USC, Michigan and Notre Dame. The Cats are also the hottest team in the Southeastern Conference over their last 13 games and tied for an 11-2 record with defending national champion Florida, who visits Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday.

The Bowl Championship Series rankings also support UK’s hot streak. Even though skeptics like ESPN’s Craig James have UK ranked as low as No. 24 in the latest Associated Press rankings. The Cats are No. 8 in the AP poll and No. 13 in the USA Today coaches’ poll but seventh in the BCS rankings:

1. Ohio State (7-0)
2. South Florida (6-0)
3. Boston College (7-0)
4. LSU (6-1)
5. Oklahoma (6-1)
6. South Carolina (6-1)
7. UK (6-1)
8. Arizona State (7-0)
9. West Virginia (5-1)
10. Oregon (5-1)
11. Virginia Tech (6-1)
12. Cal (5-1)
13. Kansas (6-0)
14. USC (5-1)
15. Florida (4-2)
16. Missouri (5-1)
17. Auburn (5-2)
18. Hawaii (7-0)
19. Virginia (6-1)
20. Georgia (5-2)
21. Tennessee (4-2)
22. Texas (5-2)
23. Cincinnati (6-1)
24. Texas Tech (6-1)
25. Michigan (5-2)

The has never been a worse match-making moment than the nibbling Daisuke Matsuzaka and the picky Brian Gorman. The pitcher makes you want to pull your hair out with his high pitch counts and refusal to pump the strike zone. It only makes matters worse when Gorman has one of the smallest strike zones of any Major League umpire.

And it makes for an impossible situation when Gorman’s strike zone is as inconsistent as Britney Spears’ panty-wearing. Pitches two inches off the plate were called balls Monday night in Game 3 of the ALCS. Pitches six inches off the plate were called strikes!?!?!?!?!

It was equally as horrid for Cleveland pitcher Jake Westbrook, but for a pitcher who is almost always wild a couple inches off the plate there was never any hope for Dice-K.

• For the record, I’d go with Beckett in Game 4 because it is a must-win and, more importantly, because I’d rather see Beckett again in a Game 7 instead of Dice-K (I’m not sure I can bare another Dice-K postseason start at this point). But if the Boston Red Sox lose the ALCS it’s not going to be because manager Terry Francona elected to stick with knuckleballer Tim Wakefield in Game 4. The Sox need Wakefield to win whetehr it is Game 4 or 5, and they need BEckett and Schilling to win their next two starts. If they lose it will be because they couldn’t capitalize off Jake Westbrook and Joe Borowski, and because Dice-K can’t get the team into the fifth inning.
• Borowski has had just 19 1-2-3 innings all season among his 69 appearances, yet the Red Sox couldn’t muster a baserunner off the game’s worst closer. As a comparison, Jonathan Papelbon has had 19 1-2-3 innings since the end of May and had 23 in just 58 appearances. The Indians and Sox are very closely matched, but if there’s a major advantage for either team it is the bullpen, and more specifically the closer position. If the Red Sox win this series it will be because they get to Borowski, Rafael Betancourt, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez — because those are the only relievers Eric Wedge is going to use in close situations — but because of Eric Gagne the superior Sox bullpen has been outpitched.

For months, maybe years, MFY fans will be bemoaning the plague of gigantic gnats and mammouth mosquitos that made their latest wunderkind go flat, but there are plenty of other flaws to blame.

But we’ll still revel in their misery as long as we can. Bye-bye Joe Torre. Can’t say we’ll miss ya. Bye-bye A-Rod, your latest postseason choke job guarantees your exodus to Anaheim or Chicago. Bye-bye Rocket, finally. You got what you deserved for selling your soul to the darkside.

And for Joba, we can only hope that the fleas that infested you and the trauma forever ruins your career in pinstripes. May this be your equivalent to what Albert Pujols did to Brad Lidge.

Onto the second-guessing:

1.) Joe Torre handicapped his team from the beginning by starting Chien-Ming Wang in Game 1 rather than Andy Pettitte. Sure, Wang had a better earned-run average and four more wins, but he also had the second-most run support in all of MLB and had a home-road split of 10-4 and 2.75 at home, 9-3 and 4.91 on the road. Pettitte had a better ERA on the road and a better postseason track record. Had Torre gone with Pettitte in Game 1 he wouldn’t have wasted his brilliant Game 2 performance against Fausto Carmona and the gnats, plus he would have been the pitcher on short rest in Game 4 rather than Wang, who was miserably bad in both starts.

2.) Lou Piniella shouldn’t have pulled Carlos Zambrano early in Game 1 against the Diamondbacks. The Cubs had a deeper starting pitching staff to begin with and shouldn’t have been afraid to pitch Jason Marquis in Game 4 because the D-backs were going with four starters. Ultimately, none of the pitchers other than Zambrano, especially Carlos Marmol, pitched well enough for it to make a difference.

3.) Likewise, Charlie Manuel should have stuck with his starter, Kyle Kendrick, as long as possible in Game 2 of Philadelphia’s series against Colorado. His bullpen had three semi-reliable relievers — JC Romero, Tom Gordon and Bret Myers, and all but Romero are only superb compared to their own bullpen bretheren — and couldn’t afford to go to his pen any earlier than the sixth inning. And with the NL’s top-scoring team, he should have expected more than two runs to win the game. But the Phillies had a slim chance from the start with such a poorous rotation.

4.) Can’t really find much fault in Mike Scioscia. The guy was left with a postseason team that was only a fraction of what he had to work with in the regular season — and he still worked wonders in the regular season — because of injuries. He probably should have started Kelvim Escobar in Game 1 given John Lackey’s history against Boston, but it wouldn’t have made a difference.

5.) The Indians relievers have plenty of time to recover, but Eric Wedge’s three-man bullpen will not work against Boston. The Sox lineup is too deep and gets into bullpens too soon for Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt and Jensen Lewis to protect the Indians from using Joe Borowski at all. Wedge overworked them against the MFY but had to.

6.) Clint Hurdle might want to start Ubaldo Jimenez in Game 2 of the NLCS. The rookie has been phenomenal and more reliebale than Josh Fogg, Franklin Morales or Taylor Buccholz.

7.) Will a team ever quit throwing the young D-backs hitters fastballs? That’s all they can hit, but they crush fastballs in obvious fastball counts. Pitch backwards to them.

8.) Schilling better start Game 2 rather than Dice-K. Matsuzaka-san looks inept and impossibly wild. Even when he gets ahead of hitters he manages to pitch himself back into hitters’ counts. Watching him nibble with a 94-mph fastball is like watching Paul Bunyan trying to cut down a tree with a butter knife. And against a patient Indians lineup it will only get him into more trouble. I want no part of watching that twice in the same series.

Revised predictions: Boston d. Cleveland, 4-2; Colorado d. Arizona, 4-1. Boston d. Colorado, 4-2.

Five rules to consider before making these MLB postseason predictions:

1.) Tiebreakers are for losers: The last team to win the World Series (or even advance to the final round) after being forced to play a tiebreaker game was the 1978 MFY. Surprisingly, there have only been seven tirbreakers (all since 1947 and none between 1948 and 1978). And the first two tiebreaker winners – the 1948 Indians and 1978 MFY — both won the World Series, but the Indians didn’t have to play a League Championship Series. All but the 1998 Cubs at least advanced to the LCS. (Of course, the 1980 Astros advanced to the LCS round by winning the tiebreaker.) The 1995 Mariners and 1999 Mets needed to win a division series.

So, that bodes well for the Rockies against the pitching poor Phillies, but not so much against Arizona or Chicago.

2.) The quicker the better in the division series: Only two teams in the wild card era have won the World Series in spite of going the distance in the division series. The 2000 MFY beat the Oakland A’s in five games and won their third straight World Series. The 2001 Diamondbacks went five games with the St. Louis Cardinals in the division series but ended the MFY dynasty in the World Series. And five of the past 12 World Series champs swept the first round.

3.) Pitching wins in the playoffs, but what does that necessarily mean? The teams with the best postseason pitching do win in the playoffs, but just because a pitcher excelled during the regular season doesn’t mean it will translate to the playoffs. Ditto for the opposite. Remember what happened with Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver last year. So, don’t bank on C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona alone.

4.) Homefield advantage matters, but it doesn’t: Any team and manager would prefer to play a Game 5 or Game 7 at home, but teams with home field advantage were just 1-for-7 last postseason. Home teams were just 16-14 (32-28 combined) each of the last two postseasons.

5.) Bank on bullpens: Teams rarely get into the playoffs without an above average offense and adequate pitching, so there’s not as great a difference team to team as often emphasized. And because you need fewer starting pitchers in the postseason teams with little starting ptiching depth actually benefit and close the gap. But the postseason is where weak bullpens get exploited.

So, without further adieu, my 2007 MLB postseason predictions …

National League Division Series

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

I love the Phillies hitters, but I hate the Phillies pitchers, sans Cole Hamels. This will be the best series of the Division Series because each inning will be so unpredictable with the lack of pitchign depth and the abundance of hitting on each team. As bad as Philly’s 2-4 starters can be, I’m not as worried about them as I am their middle relief. None of their starters will go past six or seven innings, so Antonio Alfonseca is going to figure in somwhere unless CHarlie Manuel goes exclusively with J.C. Roemro, Tom Gordon and Bret Myers. I like Colorado’sbullpen much more. Prediction: Colorado wins 3-2.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs

I’m not exaggerating when I say that the Arizona Diamondbacks are the worst team in the playoffs. They are the luckiest team to ever qualify with their 90-72 record up against a 79-83 expected win-loss record. that’s because in spite of being outscored 732-712 by their opponents, the D-backs wre 32-20 in 1-run games. Their bullpen is suspect. Their hitters are barely legal (except rightfielder Justin Upton who still isn’t old enough to drink). And beyond Brandon Webb their starting pitchers are average. So, they better bring out Bartman because the Cubs have the best pitching, hitting and bullpen in the NL postseason. The most intersting aspect of this series is most Arizona baseball fans are actually Cubs fans first and D-backs fans second thanks to the state being home to Chicago’s spring training complex. Prediction: Cubs win 3-1 (We’ll give Brandon Webb credit for one win).

NLCS

Seriously, in spite of their 85-77 record — which would rank last among the eight playoff teams and is worse than four teams who failed to make the playoffs — the Cubs are the best team in the NL. they have the best pitching depth, the best Nos. 2-4 starters and an offense that isn’t far behind Philly and Colorado. And while Arizona was lucky in relation to its ExW-L, the Cubs were unlucky. Their ExW-L was 88-74, about the same as the actual records of Philly, Colorado and Arizona. So, hold your breath Cubs fans. Prediction: Cubs win 4-2.

American League Division Series

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Southern California in Orange County’s Anaheim

At least two helpings of John Lackey. Yes sir, can we please have another? Lackey has a 1-6 record and 6.27 career ERA against the Bloody Sox. It’s even worse at Fenway Park – 1-4, 7.46 — where he’ll make the first start. Combine that with injuries to Gary Matthews Jr. and Bartolo Colon that kept both off postseason rosters and it bodes well for Boston. Prediction: Boston wins 3-1.

Cleveland Indians vs. MFY

Cue the A-Rod walk-off grand slam off Joe Borowski in April. The over/under on Borowski blowups shoudl be no less than three. It’s too late for Eric Wedge to hand closing duties over to Rafael Betancourt or Rafael Perez, but Borowski is what will keep the Indians from advancing. The Indians have the offense, the starting pitching and the middle relief to win a World Series, but their closer is the worst in the game. The MFY still have holes unless they score at least six runs per game and manager Joe Torre goes to a 3-man bullpen, but it’s enough this round. Prediction: MFY win 3-1.

ALCS

Cue the 2001 chants and the 6-year Curse of the Big Papi signs. These two teams are evenly matched in all but two aspects — the MFY have mroe offense and the Red Sox have a better bullpen — and it’s destined to go the distance if they meet. I’m banking on the Red Sox starting pitching being slightly deeper, healthier and better. (And do you really think I’d pick the MFY?) I’ve been on the record since Keith Foulke underhanded to Doug Mientkiewicz that by 2007 the Sox would have an even better team. I predicted them to win it all in February, and I’m not backing off that now. Prediction: Boston wins 4-3 on a Papi homer off Clemens.

World Series

If only this had happened in 2003: Cubs vs. Red Sox. Earth may have fallen off its axis. And if there’s a fan base that might sympathize for Cubs fans it would be Red Sox Nation. But Josh Beckett is going to foil them again, and the Bsoton bullpen and starting ptiching is too good for another curse to end. But that just sets up for an epic end to a 100-year drought for the Cubbies in 2009. Prediction: Sox win 4-1.

Back from a long absence to contribute some end of season MLB ballots:

AL

MVP: 1. A-Rod, 2. Magglio Ordonez, 3. David Ortiz, 4. Ichiro, 5. Jorge Posada.
Comment: It’s a slam dunk, even I can’t take away anything from the punk-ass’s season. C.C. Sabathia, Mike Lowell, Carlos Pena, Victor Martinez and Placido Polanco would round out my top 10.

Cy Young: 1. C.C. Sabathia, 2. Josh Beckett, 3. John Lackey, 4. J.J. Putz, 5. Fausto Carmona.
Comment: It’s so close between Beckett and Sabathia, and while I think it will be hard to deny the game’s only 20-game winner a Cy Young award, Sabathia has been slightly better with less run support and more ip, more k and more quality starts. Kelvim Escobar, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir and Erik Bedard would round out my top 10.

ROY: 1. Dustin Pedroia, 2. Delmon Young, 3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, 4. Brian Bannister, 5. Jeremy Guthrie.
Comment: Young and Pedroia are close, and you’d think Young might get the nod because of power, but I was surprised to see Pedroia has a higher slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. And young only had five more HR with a total of 13. So, Young’s only significant advantages are in RBI (which is negated by Pedroia’s equally large advantage in runs scored) and hits (which is solely because Pedroia wasn’t a full-time starter until late May. The three SP are all very close, and while Dice-K’s ERA is higher, he also has the most wins, most ip, the most QS, and far and away more K. I’ll admit he’s been disappointing, but had he gotten Beckett’s run support before the last six-week slide he would have been a 20-game winner with that bad ERA. Rafael Perez, Hideki Okajima, Joakim Soria, Reggie Willits and Akinori Iwamura round out the top 10, while Joba Chmaberlain wasn’t around long enough to get consideration.

MOY: 1. Eric Wedge, 2. Terry Francona, 3. Mike Scoscia, 4. Joe Torre, 5. John Gibbons.

NL

MVP: 1. Jimmy Rollins, 2. Prince Fielder, 3. Matt Holliday, 4. Chipper Jones, 5. Jake Peavy.
Comment: I’m not of the opinion the MVP “must” play for a contender, but I prefer it. But a “contender” doesn’t mean “playoff team.” So, I was convinced I’d pick Fielder until Rollins went 30-30 and seemed to kick-start Philly’s push. It’s close, but to me Rollins is every bit as valuable than Fielder and playing his best at the most important time and taking a team with no more overall talent farther while playing a premium position. Holliday and Chipper could be flip-flopped, too. Peavy could have jumped both. Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard round out the top 10. Was difficult to leave out Hanley Ramirez (but he’s awful defensively), Soriano and Brandon Webb, but I love the phillies.

Cy Young: 1. Peavy, 2. Brandon Webb, 3. Aaron Harang, 4. Trevor Hoffman, 5. Brad Penny.
Comment: Next to AL MVP, this was the largest runaway. Harang was worth every bot of his $40 million — Arroyo not so much. Jose Valverde, Tim Hudson, Cole Hamels, John Smoltz and Roy Oswalt round out the top 10.

ROY: 1. Ryan Braun, 2. Troy Tulowitzki, 3. Hunter Pence, 4. Pete Moylan, 5. Kyle Kendrick.
Comment: The top three are out of this world, and James Loney was great in his half season, but the rest are far off the outrageous pace Braun, Tulowitzki and Pence set. If this were like the MVP award, it would be Tulowitzki’s but it’s not and you also can’t penalize Braun for Milawukee’s failure to promote him until almost June. Had he started the season in the majors he might have broken McGwire’s rookie HR record. Tim Lincecum, James Loney, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chris Young (solely based on HR) and Micah Owings round out the top 10.

MOY: 1. Bob Melvin, 2. Charlie Manuel, 3. Clint Hurdle, 4. Bud Black.
Comment: Really, any of those managers could win it and I wouldn’t have a problem with it. The Diamondbacks have no business beign in contention — let alone winning their division — with that lineup. What the Phillies have done in spite of their pitching and maybe the most injuries of any contender is remarkable — even if I think Manuel has little to do with it.

Mark Buehrle, Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, Ken Griffey Jr., Andruw Jones and Mark Teixeira. That’s the list of most attractive and available players on the market this trading season, which runs from now until July 31.

Odds are most of those guys stay put for a number of reasons. Specifically Griffey, who can veto any trade would have a very short list of teams he’d consider a trade to (which probably includes Atlanta, Seattle and the Chicago Cubs), will be impossible to move and to get fair value in return because of his contract. He’s due $20 million the following two years.

And Dunn won’t land the Cincinnati Reds much in return, either. If traded, he can become a free agent this offseason, so a team isn’t going to be willing to give up a top prospect for a three-month rental. And even if he were signed to an extension or his option next year was picked up, teams value prospects — especially young, cheap pitchers — too much to trade one for a guy who strikes out 180 times a year. His trade value will be much better this offseason if the Reds pick up his option.

Jones probably will stay in Atlanta because the Braves are going to contend the rest of the way and his season-long slump limits his value.

Buehrle and Dye are different stories. They have an aggressive GM, the Chicago White Sox’s Kenny Williams, who won’t lose them to free agency for nothing. And as soon as Teixeira gets healthy and has one good week the Rangers are going to dump him for whatever they can get.

So, what trades should we anticipate?

The MFY are going to make a hard push for Teixeira, but the best guess is they aren’t willing to give up a major prospect to land him. And a team like the Angels of Anaheim can probably afford to because of their deep farm system and will pull the trigger. If that happens, it might actually work out swimmingly for the Reds. No, they still probably can’t move Dunn for fair value, but it might mean they can unload Scott Hatteberg on the MFY for something/anything/nothing in order to make room for Triple-A stud Joey Votto.

Dye carries a major inury flag, but the Mets, Cubs, Braves and Twins could all use his right-handed bat. My bet would be on the Mets or Cubs with the Cubs most aggressive. They’d like to unload Jacque Jones, but he would net practically nothing. Williams will demand a prospect for Dye.

And Williams will demand two — if not three - prospects for Buehrle. Yes, Buehrle is just a rental, but pitchers actually maintain their value at midseason while hitters don’t net as much return as in the offseason. Teams desparate for an arm can be held hostage by a team squandering away its season like the White Sox.

Plus, there will be many suitors. The Red Sox, MFY, Mets, Braves and Marlins have already been rumored to show interest. The team that needs Buehrle the most is Philadelphia with John Leiber out for the season and Bret Myers and Tom Gordon still on the shelf.

It’d be shocking if the Red Sox traded for him, although injuries to Curt Schilling and Julian Tavarez have taken a hit on starting pitching depth. But Jon Lester and Clay Bucholtz are competent stopgaps until those two return rather than trading one of their futures for three months of up-and-down Buehrle.

Of course the MFY will make a run, but Buehrle isn’t much better than what they already have. If they get him it will mearly be to give the appearance of improving to The Boss. Beurhle won’t make the MFY MF-better.

So, Buehrle seems destined for the NL East. The Mets seem the most likely destination given their need and their aggressiveness. But the Braves never go quietly, and the Phillies may finally feel the fan pressure to make a move. They’ve always started slow and come on after the break when it was too late. This year, they started slow but flipped the switch early enough to be in the race at the All-Star Break.

There have already been plenty of early-season Major League call-ups through just three months, most notably Houston’s Hunter Pence, San Fran’s Tim Lincecum, Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey and Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun. All four are future All-Stars.

There’s also been several rookies who have so far flamed — San Diego’s Kevin Kouzmanoff, MFY pitcher Philip Hughes, Tampa Bay’s Delmon Young and Chicago White Sox OF Ryan Sweeney — after slow starts or injuries.

But this season has really enjoyed a great crop of rookies already — Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie, Boston’s Dustin Pedroia, Atlanta’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Arizona’s Chris Young, the MFY’s Tyler Clippard and Atlanta’s Yunel Escobar, to name a few more — but more often than not the top young call-ups come after the midway point of the season. The ones that make the biggest immediate impact often have a few more months of seasoning in the minors to ease them into an everyday role at the major league level.

A few recent examples are David Wright, who was an instant success with the Mets in 2004 with 14 home runs in just 69 games, Ryan Howard and Justin Morneau. Morneau and Howard both had a couple cups of coffee with mixed results before finally breaking in big the last two seasons.

There’s always the freak of nature who excels from Day 1 — Albert Pujols, most notably — but it always benefits a team to give its prospects as much development time down on the farm as possible. That’s why the timing of the Reds’ promotion of Bailey is perfect. They need him, but they needed him last summer, too. Kudos to GM Wayne Krivsky for not rushing him.

But there are several more minor leaguers who are going to blossom in the second half with call-ups. Another Reds farmhand, Joey Votto, is one. The first baseman can rake, and he’s ready to make the move northward on I-71. All that’s standing in the way is a trade of Scott Hatteberg, which will probably happen in the next month, most likely to the the MFY.

Votto is hitting .314 at Triple-A Louisville, and along with Bailey and OF Jay Bruce will infuse some life into the lowly Reds.

Most midseason call-ups are going to come from teams at the bottom of the standings with little to risk until Septemeber when rosters expand. Pennant-contending teams are less likely to rest their playoff hopes on a first-timer.

The Royals should also call up OF Billy Butler to join a developing nucleus of young players that includes 3B Alex Gordon (who would have benefited from a couple extra months in Triple-A as opposed to being the Opening Day starter), CF David DeJesus, 1B Ryan Shealy and C John Buck. Butler is a defensively liability. He is best-suited to DH, but the Royals really don’t have much to lose with him in the field either. But Butler can really help with the bat.

Others to watch out for are Cleveland RHP Adam Miller, Seattle’s Adam Jones and Tampa’s Jeff Niemann. Jones got called up last year and played admirably at age 20, but the acquisition of Jose Guillen in the offseason forced him back to Triple-A Tacoma. Think Mike Cameron but with more power potential.

If the Mets’ pitching staff continues to struggle, they may even give Philip Humber a shot. And when the White Sox trade Mark Buerhle, Gio Gonzalez — who was once traded to the Phillies for Jim Thome only to return to Chicago for Freddy Garcia — will likely take his spot in Ozzie Guillen’s pitching rotation. Also: Justin Maxwell, Brian Horwitz, Nolan Reimold and Daric Barton.

There are also several prospects who previously were on a timetable to play in the majors this season but have stumbled: Tampa’s Evan Longoria, St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, Anaheim’s Brandon Wood and Dodger 3B Andy LaRoche.

So, the MFY are red-hot and trimmed six games off the Boston Red Sox’s American League East division lead to 8 1/2 games in less than 20 days going into Monday night.

MFY fans would like you to believe — as they’ve been saying for close to two months, “Wait ’til The Rocket is in pinstripes” — that the Bronx Bomers’ resurgence has everything to do with Roger Clemens’ return to MFY Stadium and that with Clemens on board they’ll now come from behind to claim their rightful (read: conceited, not conceded) place atop the AL East standings.

And it’s hard to argue that Clemens’ effect on the team hasn’t been positive. He’s just 1-1 with a 3.65 earned-run average in two starts, but since the date his first start was announced the MFY are 14-3. But in reality, Clemens has had little to do with the MFY resurgence. It’s all about the offense. Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu are all finally hitting, and A-Rod, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are still hitting. On May 28, the MFY were averaging 5.2 runs per game. Over the last 18 games they’ve averaged 6.8 runs per game.

But it shouldn’t be a surprise. Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon aren’t the same players they were just a couple years ago, but nearly every other batter in the MFY lineup is still as good as they’ve always been. Posada is probably on wrong side of his peak years, but he’s actually having his best year ever. And Jason Giambi’s injury may be the best thing that’s happened to the MFY — including Clemens’ return — this season. For one, he’s one-dimensional. Secondly, it’s allowed Melky Cabrera to play every day. And most importantly, it’s allowed manager Joe Torre to keep from playing Damon in center field every day by using him as a DH and playing the much better defender, Cabrera, in a pivotal defensive position.

And the MFY are 12-3 since Giambi went on the DL. But even if he was still playing the MFY should have been expected to close the gap with the Red Sox. For one, the Red Sox were 36-15 on May 30. That’s a .706 winning percentage. Only six teams since 1900 have won 70 percent of their games, and the last two — the MFY in 1998 and the Seattle Mariners in 2001 — are the only AL teams to accomplish the feat.

So, history would dictate that the Red Sox were going to slow a bit, and they have. They are 8-9 since May 29. That’s hardly a collapse, but it’s a minor slump. But to put it in perspective, the Red Sox could play .470 ball the rest of the season, which is what 8-9 is, and still win a total of 88 games and be in contention for the wild card. The MFY would need to play .557 the rest of the seaosn to win just as many games.

But this isn’t about debunking the theory that the MFY are going to come back and win the division. they are still very much in the division. A more likely scenario is that the MFY win about 60 percent of the rest of their games and finish with between 92 and 95 wins, while the Red Sox win about 55 percent of their remaining games and finish with between 95 and 100 wins. So, the division is very much up for grabs.

This is actually about debunking the notion that Clemens has anything to do with that possibility. For one, he’s only going to play between 20 and 25 games, if he remains healthy. At that, he’s never going to pitch more than seven innings in any single game. At best, he’s going to help the MFY win five or six more games than they might have with any number of decent Triple-A pitchers in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. And it could be argued that if the MFY batters hit like they have the last 20 days that just about any pitcher who gives them five innings and five runs (a 9.00 ERA) would suffice.

And the proof is in Bill James’ Pythagorean W-L formula. It’s foundation is the same as the old Pythagorean Theorum from high school Algebra I: A(squared) + B(squared) = C(squared). James’ theory is that a team’s record should reflect its scoring differential. Teams that score more than they allow should have winning records, and the greater the difference the greater the winning percentage.

Well, on May 29 — when the MFY were 14.5 games back and tied for last place with the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays — they had scored 258 runs and allowed just 239. (Comparatively, with the same record the Devil Rays had scored just 232 and allowed 308.) Based on James’ equation (and we’ll use his original factor of 2) the MFY should have had a winning percentage of .519, so instead of 21-29 the MFY should have been 26-24. Conversely, the Red Sox’s expected W/L was 30-21 rather than their 36-15 record. THe differences are essentially reflected by their different successes/failures in close ballgames.

Fast-forward two weeks, and both teams are playing much more like their expected W/L records. The MFY are 35-32 with an ExW/L of 37-30. The Red Sox are 44-24 compared to an ExW/L of 39-29.

Are the Red Sox better? Slightly, but we should have expected the AL East race to get closer. And you can’t rule the MFY out until they trail by double digits in the loss column with less than two months to play.

After much urging by this site’s moderators combined with my future change of employment, I’ve finally joined the Loge Level. The hope is there will be periodic Major League Baseball perspective and mostly fantasy baseball input and minor league/draft prospect updates. Not that I’m an expert, but I’ve been told the site is lacking in hardball tidbits.

So, I’ll dedicate this blog to the Splendid Splinter, the greatest hitter ever even if fantasy baseball was still decades away from its creation while Teddy Ballgame was in his heyday. More importantly, there may have never been a greater endorsement sales pitch than The Kid’s order: “Drink Moxie,” because Ted Williams said so. Nevermind what Moxie is or, more appropriately, was.

Hopefully we can provide analysis on the importance of OPS, the relative declines or immergences of particular players. In the coming days, I’ll discuss the possibility of the New York Yankees (or MFY as they’ll be referred to from here on out) catching the Boston Red Sox in the American League East. The MFY have trimmed seven games off the divisional lead in less than three weeks, and the crux of the evaluation will be Bill James’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage, which is essentially the expected Win/Loss record for a team based on its runs scored vs. runs allowed.

But I’ll try to keep the Red Sox-MFY hysteria to a minimum. This won’t be a lovefest for Moxie Legion’s favorite team or a grinding axe of its most hated rival. Instead, it will be a broad scope of both the Senior and Junior Circuits. When it’s appropriate, there’ll be no hesitation to delve into some other interests: Kentucky basketball, recruiting, The Office, horse racing and Cincinnati-style chili. 

I’ll try and leave the footballer analysis to A4H and Status Quo.