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There have already been plenty of early-season Major League call-ups through just three months, most notably Houston’s Hunter Pence, San Fran’s Tim Lincecum, Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey and Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun. All four are future All-Stars.

There’s also been several rookies who have so far flamed — San Diego’s Kevin Kouzmanoff, MFY pitcher Philip Hughes, Tampa Bay’s Delmon Young and Chicago White Sox OF Ryan Sweeney — after slow starts or injuries.

But this season has really enjoyed a great crop of rookies already — Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie, Boston’s Dustin Pedroia, Atlanta’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Arizona’s Chris Young, the MFY’s Tyler Clippard and Atlanta’s Yunel Escobar, to name a few more — but more often than not the top young call-ups come after the midway point of the season. The ones that make the biggest immediate impact often have a few more months of seasoning in the minors to ease them into an everyday role at the major league level.

A few recent examples are David Wright, who was an instant success with the Mets in 2004 with 14 home runs in just 69 games, Ryan Howard and Justin Morneau. Morneau and Howard both had a couple cups of coffee with mixed results before finally breaking in big the last two seasons.

There’s always the freak of nature who excels from Day 1 — Albert Pujols, most notably — but it always benefits a team to give its prospects as much development time down on the farm as possible. That’s why the timing of the Reds’ promotion of Bailey is perfect. They need him, but they needed him last summer, too. Kudos to GM Wayne Krivsky for not rushing him.

But there are several more minor leaguers who are going to blossom in the second half with call-ups. Another Reds farmhand, Joey Votto, is one. The first baseman can rake, and he’s ready to make the move northward on I-71. All that’s standing in the way is a trade of Scott Hatteberg, which will probably happen in the next month, most likely to the the MFY.

Votto is hitting .314 at Triple-A Louisville, and along with Bailey and OF Jay Bruce will infuse some life into the lowly Reds.

Most midseason call-ups are going to come from teams at the bottom of the standings with little to risk until Septemeber when rosters expand. Pennant-contending teams are less likely to rest their playoff hopes on a first-timer.

The Royals should also call up OF Billy Butler to join a developing nucleus of young players that includes 3B Alex Gordon (who would have benefited from a couple extra months in Triple-A as opposed to being the Opening Day starter), CF David DeJesus, 1B Ryan Shealy and C John Buck. Butler is a defensively liability. He is best-suited to DH, but the Royals really don’t have much to lose with him in the field either. But Butler can really help with the bat.

Others to watch out for are Cleveland RHP Adam Miller, Seattle’s Adam Jones and Tampa’s Jeff Niemann. Jones got called up last year and played admirably at age 20, but the acquisition of Jose Guillen in the offseason forced him back to Triple-A Tacoma. Think Mike Cameron but with more power potential.

If the Mets’ pitching staff continues to struggle, they may even give Philip Humber a shot. And when the White Sox trade Mark Buerhle, Gio Gonzalez — who was once traded to the Phillies for Jim Thome only to return to Chicago for Freddy Garcia — will likely take his spot in Ozzie Guillen’s pitching rotation. Also: Justin Maxwell, Brian Horwitz, Nolan Reimold and Daric Barton.

There are also several prospects who previously were on a timetable to play in the majors this season but have stumbled: Tampa’s Evan Longoria, St. Louis’ Colby Rasmus, Anaheim’s Brandon Wood and Dodger 3B Andy LaRoche.

The New York Times recently reported that the NY Mets were interested in possibly bringing another MLS team to New York.  (Login Required Link)  In addition to the New York, Oakland A’s owners Lew Wolff and John Fisher purchased an option last year to bring a new team back to San Jose. (Link)  Currently the MLS contracts their team and League Web Sites to Major League Baseball’s Advanced Media.

So, the MFY are red-hot and trimmed six games off the Boston Red Sox’s American League East division lead to 8 1/2 games in less than 20 days going into Monday night.

MFY fans would like you to believe — as they’ve been saying for close to two months, “Wait ’til The Rocket is in pinstripes” — that the Bronx Bomers’ resurgence has everything to do with Roger Clemens’ return to MFY Stadium and that with Clemens on board they’ll now come from behind to claim their rightful (read: conceited, not conceded) place atop the AL East standings.

And it’s hard to argue that Clemens’ effect on the team hasn’t been positive. He’s just 1-1 with a 3.65 earned-run average in two starts, but since the date his first start was announced the MFY are 14-3. But in reality, Clemens has had little to do with the MFY resurgence. It’s all about the offense. Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu are all finally hitting, and A-Rod, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are still hitting. On May 28, the MFY were averaging 5.2 runs per game. Over the last 18 games they’ve averaged 6.8 runs per game.

But it shouldn’t be a surprise. Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon aren’t the same players they were just a couple years ago, but nearly every other batter in the MFY lineup is still as good as they’ve always been. Posada is probably on wrong side of his peak years, but he’s actually having his best year ever. And Jason Giambi’s injury may be the best thing that’s happened to the MFY — including Clemens’ return — this season. For one, he’s one-dimensional. Secondly, it’s allowed Melky Cabrera to play every day. And most importantly, it’s allowed manager Joe Torre to keep from playing Damon in center field every day by using him as a DH and playing the much better defender, Cabrera, in a pivotal defensive position.

And the MFY are 12-3 since Giambi went on the DL. But even if he was still playing the MFY should have been expected to close the gap with the Red Sox. For one, the Red Sox were 36-15 on May 30. That’s a .706 winning percentage. Only six teams since 1900 have won 70 percent of their games, and the last two — the MFY in 1998 and the Seattle Mariners in 2001 — are the only AL teams to accomplish the feat.

So, history would dictate that the Red Sox were going to slow a bit, and they have. They are 8-9 since May 29. That’s hardly a collapse, but it’s a minor slump. But to put it in perspective, the Red Sox could play .470 ball the rest of the season, which is what 8-9 is, and still win a total of 88 games and be in contention for the wild card. The MFY would need to play .557 the rest of the seaosn to win just as many games.

But this isn’t about debunking the theory that the MFY are going to come back and win the division. they are still very much in the division. A more likely scenario is that the MFY win about 60 percent of the rest of their games and finish with between 92 and 95 wins, while the Red Sox win about 55 percent of their remaining games and finish with between 95 and 100 wins. So, the division is very much up for grabs.

This is actually about debunking the notion that Clemens has anything to do with that possibility. For one, he’s only going to play between 20 and 25 games, if he remains healthy. At that, he’s never going to pitch more than seven innings in any single game. At best, he’s going to help the MFY win five or six more games than they might have with any number of decent Triple-A pitchers in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. And it could be argued that if the MFY batters hit like they have the last 20 days that just about any pitcher who gives them five innings and five runs (a 9.00 ERA) would suffice.

And the proof is in Bill James’ Pythagorean W-L formula. It’s foundation is the same as the old Pythagorean Theorum from high school Algebra I: A(squared) + B(squared) = C(squared). James’ theory is that a team’s record should reflect its scoring differential. Teams that score more than they allow should have winning records, and the greater the difference the greater the winning percentage.

Well, on May 29 — when the MFY were 14.5 games back and tied for last place with the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays — they had scored 258 runs and allowed just 239. (Comparatively, with the same record the Devil Rays had scored just 232 and allowed 308.) Based on James’ equation (and we’ll use his original factor of 2) the MFY should have had a winning percentage of .519, so instead of 21-29 the MFY should have been 26-24. Conversely, the Red Sox’s expected W/L was 30-21 rather than their 36-15 record. THe differences are essentially reflected by their different successes/failures in close ballgames.

Fast-forward two weeks, and both teams are playing much more like their expected W/L records. The MFY are 35-32 with an ExW/L of 37-30. The Red Sox are 44-24 compared to an ExW/L of 39-29.

Are the Red Sox better? Slightly, but we should have expected the AL East race to get closer. And you can’t rule the MFY out until they trail by double digits in the loss column with less than two months to play.

After much urging by this site’s moderators combined with my future change of employment, I’ve finally joined the Loge Level. The hope is there will be periodic Major League Baseball perspective and mostly fantasy baseball input and minor league/draft prospect updates. Not that I’m an expert, but I’ve been told the site is lacking in hardball tidbits.

So, I’ll dedicate this blog to the Splendid Splinter, the greatest hitter ever even if fantasy baseball was still decades away from its creation while Teddy Ballgame was in his heyday. More importantly, there may have never been a greater endorsement sales pitch than The Kid’s order: “Drink Moxie,” because Ted Williams said so. Nevermind what Moxie is or, more appropriately, was.

Hopefully we can provide analysis on the importance of OPS, the relative declines or immergences of particular players. In the coming days, I’ll discuss the possibility of the New York Yankees (or MFY as they’ll be referred to from here on out) catching the Boston Red Sox in the American League East. The MFY have trimmed seven games off the divisional lead in less than three weeks, and the crux of the evaluation will be Bill James’ Pythagorean Winning Percentage, which is essentially the expected Win/Loss record for a team based on its runs scored vs. runs allowed.

But I’ll try to keep the Red Sox-MFY hysteria to a minimum. This won’t be a lovefest for Moxie Legion’s favorite team or a grinding axe of its most hated rival. Instead, it will be a broad scope of both the Senior and Junior Circuits. When it’s appropriate, there’ll be no hesitation to delve into some other interests: Kentucky basketball, recruiting, The Office, horse racing and Cincinnati-style chili. 

I’ll try and leave the footballer analysis to A4H and Status Quo.

This was always one of my favorite episodes of the Simpsons.  Hard to believe it has been 15 years. 

Here was the Starting line-up on Monty Burns’ Team

1 Steve Sax         2B
2 Wade Boggs        3B
3 Darryl Strawberry RF
4 Jose Canseco      LF
5 Don Mattingly     1B
6 Ken Griffey, Jr.  CF
7 Mike Scioscia     C 
8 Ozzie Smith       SS
9 Roger Clemens     P

Read the Sports Illustrated article about the episode after the jump. (more…)

Were sports fans forced to accept mediocrity in 2006?

After the World Series there was a lot written about whether the Cardinals were the worst World Series champ ever. (Example A and B) What I haven’t seen written is historically how did last year’s other champions the Steelers and Heat rank. This got me thinking were the Stealers, Heat, and Cardinals collectively the worst combination of championship teams ever?  My suspicions were that based on the aggregate winning percentage of the three teams last year would rank as either the worst year of champions of nearly the worst.

To test out my hypothesis I looked at the NFL, NBA, and MLB league results since 1990 and here is what I found.  Obviously the Cardinals had the worst record of any Word Series winning baseball team over the period.  They finished the season at 83-78, since 1990 the second worst team record wise to win the World Series was the 2000 New York Yankees 87-74.  In the NFL the 11-5 Steelers and the 2002 New England Patriots were the only teams with 5 losses to win the Super Bowl since 1990.  And in the NBA last year’s Miami Heat were only surpassed in losses by the 1995 Houston Rockets.

A look at overall records bears out that 2006 was collectively the worst year for champions since 1990. Furthermore by examining the composite winning percentages it becomes clear that not only was last year the worst but it was significantly worse than any other year over the period.

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A few random items relating to previous posts.

-It looks like A4H’s dream is about to come true. Today David Beckham announced he is coming to the US. (Fox Soccer)

-The NBA is reporting that the new Kobe Bryant jersey is once again its best seller.  It might be a good time to unleash the 24/8 concept.

-The Murphy 2007 movement came up short.  It’s not looking good for Murphy at the moment as he received only 9% of the votes this year.   However even if Dale never makes it to the Hall I will always remember him fondly because of this cool poster I had when I was a kid.

With two teams, the Cubs and Red Sox, each spending around 200 million dollars this off-season there are many questions about Baseball’s finances.  The main one of course being: Where is all this money coming from?  After all television ratings have been declining for years and owners are constantly claiming their franchises loose money.  I’ve recently come across a few articles which attempt to explain why contracts are up despite the feeling that the sport is declining in popularity.

(more…)

How do I say goodbye to what we had?
The good times that made us laugh
Outweigh the bad.

I don’t know where this road
Is going to lead
All I know is where we’ve been
And what we’ve been through.

If we get to see tomorrow
I hope it’s worth all the wait
It’s so hard to say goodbye to yesterday.

It’s a sad day in St. Louis as Rick Ankiel becomes a free agent.

Top five musical crimes perpetuated by Stevie Wonder in the ’80s and ’90s. Go. Sub-question: is it in fact unfair to criticize a formerly great artist for his latter day sins, is it better to burn out or fade away?

For Stevie Wonder that question might not be so easily answered. When it comes to Dale Murphy’s Hall of Fame credentials it appears as though the answer to that age old pop culture question is much more obvious.

So why is it that Dale Murphy is the only HOF eligible player in history to win 2 NL MVP awards and not be in Cooperstown?

How is it that he was arguably the best player in the sport during the 80’s but isnt considered to be one of the best players of all time?

From 1980 to 1990 the Murph was named to the NL Allstar team 7 times, won 2 MVP’s, 5 Gold Gloves and 4 Silver Slugger awards. He led the league in homeruns, RBI and slugging twice. He also lead the league in base pct., total bases, walks and runs scored. He had 12 - 20 homerun seasons, 6 - 30 homerun seasons, 1- 40 homerun season, 5 - 100 RBI seasons and 4 - 100 runs scored seasons. From 1982-1985 he did not miss a single game. He finished his career with 398 career homeruns.

Many experts agree that the two homeruns he finished shy of 400 might be the only thing keeping him out of Cooperstown. Sure in this day and age of chemically inflated offensive numbers 400 homers is not the benchmark it once was. However, a sub 400 hr career didnt prevent Tony Perez, Orlando Cepeda, Ralph Kiner, Joe DiMaggio, Hank Greenberg, Johnny Bench and Carlton Fisk from being inducted.

Is it fair to punish the greatest player in baseball for nearly a decade because in his last six seasons he only hit as high as .252 once? Did Stevie Wonder get left out of the Rock and Roll hall of fame in ‘89 despite not having a top ten hit for 4 years? I’ll save you a Google..the answer is no.

Would Murphy be in the Hall of Fame if he had retired six years earlier, had he turned his back on the love of the sport and his competitive desire to continue playing? Would he be in the Hall if he could Mr. 3000 it back to the 80’s, catch a stiffer wind and send two more deep flies on out of the park? The answer to that is irrelevant, because what he did accomplish was good enough.

So, is it in fact better to burn out or fade away? I guess it all depends on whether you are holding a ballot for Cleveland or Cooperstown.

Boston was so impressed with Daisuke Matsuzaka’s gyro ball pitch that they posted $51.1 million dollars just to negotiate with the talented right-hander. Now it appears the Red Sox have unveiled their speciality pitch - the low ball. Reports are that they have offered the pitcher nearly half of the reported $14 million per season he and his agent are seeking. If the two sides cannot come to an agreement by Dec. 14 Matsuzaka will take his gyro ball and go home to Japan where he would become an unrestricted free agent next offseason. It appears as though priority numbero uno for agent Scott Boras is finishing a deal with the BoSox to make another of one of his clients D.L. (whoops I meant J.D.) Drew the highest- paid player on the team. One potential stumbling block appears to be his clients rumored request for a separate clubhouse for his over inflated ego.

In an unexpected yet redlike move Cincinnati once again turned a blind eye to a position they needed to fill, and piled on a position. No, they didn’t sign another outfielder. This time it was a third catcher, former Brewer Chad Moeller. No word yet on whether their plan is to ask veteran Jake Taylor to join the coaching staff during spring training.