Judgment Day
By Travis
Sunday is Judgment Day. If the University of Kentucky loses on Senior Day at Rupp Arena, being swept by the Florida Gators, the Wildcats can kiss an NCAA at-large berth good-bye.
Maybe, if they somehow slipped to the third seed and ended up with three wins in the Southeastern Conference Tournament before losing the title game, they might undo a loss on Sunday. But that road would go through Alabama/Auburn, Arkansas and likely Tennessee (but maybe LSU/Ole Miss or South Carolina). They’ve played Tennessee well, but I like their odds of advancing that far better if they rest on Thursday, play Ole Miss/LSU or Georgia on Friday and either Mississippi State, Florida or Auburn/Alabama on Saturday.
But that scenario hinges on a win Sunday. Still, unlike others, I don’t think a win Sunday guarantees a bid. It would vault the Cats ahead of Florida and into the NCAA Tournament for the time-being. But they still need at least one more win in the SEC Tournament to lock down that bid, which would make a run to the SEC title game unnecessary.
ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi recently moved the Cats from “consideration” to “last four out” in his latest Bracketology; he’s scheduled to update on Friday. The others were Western Kentucky, Syracuse and Houston (which as I’ve said doesn’t bode well for the Cats consdiering the Cougars beat them head-to-head). The next four were Southern Illinois, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton and Ohio State.
But the “last four in” were Maryland, New Mexico, Virginia Tech and Florida. A UK win on Sunday, in my opinion, would warrant the Cats and Gators swapping spots. Florida has more wins, but against weaker teams, and there would be no doubt which team is better at this point in time. Florida would have won only eight of its last 16. UK would have won 11 of 13 and 12 conference games.
Gary Parrish of CBS.Sportsline.com also has UK on the bubble and Florida in while projecting the field. Foxsports.com’s Jeff Goodman says the win at South Carolina on Wednesday locked up a bid.
I don’t buy into the notion that because no SEC team with 10 conference wins or more has ever been left out of the Tournament that the Cats are safe.
The Cats are still going to have Patrick Patterson’s injury working against them in the NCAA Tournament selection committee’s evaluations, although they’ve already done a lot to put that Judgment to rest.
Twelve wins wouldn’t even make me feel safe, but it would put the Cats one victory away from the greatest in-season turnaround in UK basketball history.