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Kentucky Wildcats fans have plenty to be encouraged about, and I’ll be the first to admit that I was among the first to proudly proclaim the Cats had turned the corner. And they have.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — the corner they turned was a meager hurdle in the lanscape of expectations that generally accompany this storied program. The Cats are still only 8-9, 2-2 in the Southeastern Conference. Yes, Tuesday was the first time they’ve had 100 percent of their roster at Coach Billy Gillispie’s disposal, and I can see them rattling off eight or nine wins in their final 12 SEC contests.

But the Cats still have one more roadblock to overcome before we seriously start crowning them SEC contenders and on the NCAA bubble. UK has not won a road game this season. They’ve come close against very competitive teams their last two times away against Mississippi State and Florida, so they’re on the brink of turning that corner, too.

But the Cats are far from being seriously considered for the NCAA bubble. Sure, the NCAA selection committee may give the Cats some sympathy given they played their first 16 games with some combination of a diminished roster. If they’re playing like a 20-8 team down the stretch and are 10-3 with a healthy roster they may get a bid after a couple wins in the SEC Tournament and an 18-14 or a 19-13 record. But even then, their RPI (144th) is going to spell R.I.P.

And until they beat a Georgia, a Vandy, a Tennessee or a South Carolina on the road then that scenario is not a realistic expectation.

And there’s not a home game that should be considered a given with this team. A loss to LSU, Alabama or USC would be a huge disappointment at this stage but not a shock. The Cats have to fight for every point, every rebound and every win.

Even if we assume the Cats win the home games they are supposed to (USC and Alabama), win the road games they are supposed to (Auburn and LSU), lose to Tennessee and Vandy on the road, split their tough home games (Georgia, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Florida) and split the rest of their road games (Georgia and USC), it will have been a great salvage of the season. Their final regular season record would be 15-14 and their conference record would be 9-7.

So, winning on the road will become of utmost importance, especially stealing games at Vandy, Georgia and USC plus getting revenge against Florida in Rupp on Senior Day, which would catch the nation’s attention on the last day of the regular season.

Optimistically, yes, we could be looking at a 17-12 record heading to CATlanta. And an internal optimist might even predict an 18- or 19-win regular season. But, let’s see the Cats win on the road before we expect this .500 team to finish any better than 9-7 in the SEC, which would be a great accomplishment.

Then, let’s win the SEC Tourney and erase all doubt!

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 24th, 2008 at 10:39 pm and is filed under Blue Goggles, College Basketball, UK. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.