By Travis
Five rules to consider before making these MLB postseason predictions:
1.) Tiebreakers are for losers: The last team to win the World Series (or even advance to the final round) after being forced to play a tiebreaker game was the 1978 MFY. Surprisingly, there have only been seven tirbreakers (all since 1947 and none between 1948 and 1978). And the first two tiebreaker winners – the 1948 Indians and 1978 MFY — both won the World Series, but the Indians didn’t have to play a League Championship Series. All but the 1998 Cubs at least advanced to the LCS. (Of course, the 1980 Astros advanced to the LCS round by winning the tiebreaker.) The 1995 Mariners and 1999 Mets needed to win a division series.
So, that bodes well for the Rockies against the pitching poor Phillies, but not so much against Arizona or Chicago.
2.) The quicker the better in the division series: Only two teams in the wild card era have won the World Series in spite of going the distance in the division series. The 2000 MFY beat the Oakland A’s in five games and won their third straight World Series. The 2001 Diamondbacks went five games with the St. Louis Cardinals in the division series but ended the MFY dynasty in the World Series. And five of the past 12 World Series champs swept the first round.
3.) Pitching wins in the playoffs, but what does that necessarily mean? The teams with the best postseason pitching do win in the playoffs, but just because a pitcher excelled during the regular season doesn’t mean it will translate to the playoffs. Ditto for the opposite. Remember what happened with Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver last year. So, don’t bank on C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona alone.
4.) Homefield advantage matters, but it doesn’t: Any team and manager would prefer to play a Game 5 or Game 7 at home, but teams with home field advantage were just 1-for-7 last postseason. Home teams were just 16-14 (32-28 combined) each of the last two postseasons.
5.) Bank on bullpens: Teams rarely get into the playoffs without an above average offense and adequate pitching, so there’s not as great a difference team to team as often emphasized. And because you need fewer starting pitchers in the postseason teams with little starting ptiching depth actually benefit and close the gap. But the postseason is where weak bullpens get exploited.
So, without further adieu, my 2007 MLB postseason predictions …
National League Division Series
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
I love the Phillies hitters, but I hate the Phillies pitchers, sans Cole Hamels. This will be the best series of the Division Series because each inning will be so unpredictable with the lack of pitchign depth and the abundance of hitting on each team. As bad as Philly’s 2-4 starters can be, I’m not as worried about them as I am their middle relief. None of their starters will go past six or seven innings, so Antonio Alfonseca is going to figure in somwhere unless CHarlie Manuel goes exclusively with J.C. Roemro, Tom Gordon and Bret Myers. I like Colorado’sbullpen much more. Prediction: Colorado wins 3-2.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
I’m not exaggerating when I say that the Arizona Diamondbacks are the worst team in the playoffs. They are the luckiest team to ever qualify with their 90-72 record up against a 79-83 expected win-loss record. that’s because in spite of being outscored 732-712 by their opponents, the D-backs wre 32-20 in 1-run games. Their bullpen is suspect. Their hitters are barely legal (except rightfielder Justin Upton who still isn’t old enough to drink). And beyond Brandon Webb their starting pitchers are average. So, they better bring out Bartman because the Cubs have the best pitching, hitting and bullpen in the NL postseason. The most intersting aspect of this series is most Arizona baseball fans are actually Cubs fans first and D-backs fans second thanks to the state being home to Chicago’s spring training complex. Prediction: Cubs win 3-1 (We’ll give Brandon Webb credit for one win).
NLCS
Seriously, in spite of their 85-77 record — which would rank last among the eight playoff teams and is worse than four teams who failed to make the playoffs — the Cubs are the best team in the NL. they have the best pitching depth, the best Nos. 2-4 starters and an offense that isn’t far behind Philly and Colorado. And while Arizona was lucky in relation to its ExW-L, the Cubs were unlucky. Their ExW-L was 88-74, about the same as the actual records of Philly, Colorado and Arizona. So, hold your breath Cubs fans. Prediction: Cubs win 4-2.
American League Division Series
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels of Southern California in Orange County’s Anaheim
At least two helpings of John Lackey. Yes sir, can we please have another? Lackey has a 1-6 record and 6.27 career ERA against the Bloody Sox. It’s even worse at Fenway Park – 1-4, 7.46 — where he’ll make the first start. Combine that with injuries to Gary Matthews Jr. and Bartolo Colon that kept both off postseason rosters and it bodes well for Boston. Prediction: Boston wins 3-1.
Cleveland Indians vs. MFY
Cue the A-Rod walk-off grand slam off Joe Borowski in April. The over/under on Borowski blowups shoudl be no less than three. It’s too late for Eric Wedge to hand closing duties over to Rafael Betancourt or Rafael Perez, but Borowski is what will keep the Indians from advancing. The Indians have the offense, the starting pitching and the middle relief to win a World Series, but their closer is the worst in the game. The MFY still have holes unless they score at least six runs per game and manager Joe Torre goes to a 3-man bullpen, but it’s enough this round. Prediction: MFY win 3-1.
ALCS
Cue the 2001 chants and the 6-year Curse of the Big Papi signs. These two teams are evenly matched in all but two aspects — the MFY have mroe offense and the Red Sox have a better bullpen — and it’s destined to go the distance if they meet. I’m banking on the Red Sox starting pitching being slightly deeper, healthier and better. (And do you really think I’d pick the MFY?) I’ve been on the record since Keith Foulke underhanded to Doug Mientkiewicz that by 2007 the Sox would have an even better team. I predicted them to win it all in February, and I’m not backing off that now. Prediction: Boston wins 4-3 on a Papi homer off Clemens.
World Series
If only this had happened in 2003: Cubs vs. Red Sox. Earth may have fallen off its axis. And if there’s a fan base that might sympathize for Cubs fans it would be Red Sox Nation. But Josh Beckett is going to foil them again, and the Bsoton bullpen and starting ptiching is too good for another curse to end. But that just sets up for an epic end to a 100-year drought for the Cubbies in 2009. Prediction: Sox win 4-1.