The Rocket Non-factor
By Travis
So, the MFY are red-hot and trimmed six games off the Boston Red Sox’s American League East division lead to 8 1/2 games in less than 20 days going into Monday night.
MFY fans would like you to believe — as they’ve been saying for close to two months, “Wait ’til The Rocket is in pinstripes” — that the Bronx Bomers’ resurgence has everything to do with Roger Clemens’ return to MFY Stadium and that with Clemens on board they’ll now come from behind to claim their rightful (read: conceited, not conceded) place atop the AL East standings.
And it’s hard to argue that Clemens’ effect on the team hasn’t been positive. He’s just 1-1 with a 3.65 earned-run average in two starts, but since the date his first start was announced the MFY are 14-3. But in reality, Clemens has had little to do with the MFY resurgence. It’s all about the offense. Robinson Cano, Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu are all finally hitting, and A-Rod, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are still hitting. On May 28, the MFY were averaging 5.2 runs per game. Over the last 18 games they’ve averaged 6.8 runs per game.
But it shouldn’t be a surprise. Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon aren’t the same players they were just a couple years ago, but nearly every other batter in the MFY lineup is still as good as they’ve always been. Posada is probably on wrong side of his peak years, but he’s actually having his best year ever. And Jason Giambi’s injury may be the best thing that’s happened to the MFY — including Clemens’ return — this season. For one, he’s one-dimensional. Secondly, it’s allowed Melky Cabrera to play every day. And most importantly, it’s allowed manager Joe Torre to keep from playing Damon in center field every day by using him as a DH and playing the much better defender, Cabrera, in a pivotal defensive position.
And the MFY are 12-3 since Giambi went on the DL. But even if he was still playing the MFY should have been expected to close the gap with the Red Sox. For one, the Red Sox were 36-15 on May 30. That’s a .706 winning percentage. Only six teams since 1900 have won 70 percent of their games, and the last two — the MFY in 1998 and the Seattle Mariners in 2001 — are the only AL teams to accomplish the feat.
So, history would dictate that the Red Sox were going to slow a bit, and they have. They are 8-9 since May 29. That’s hardly a collapse, but it’s a minor slump. But to put it in perspective, the Red Sox could play .470 ball the rest of the season, which is what 8-9 is, and still win a total of 88 games and be in contention for the wild card. The MFY would need to play .557 the rest of the seaosn to win just as many games.
But this isn’t about debunking the theory that the MFY are going to come back and win the division. they are still very much in the division. A more likely scenario is that the MFY win about 60 percent of the rest of their games and finish with between 92 and 95 wins, while the Red Sox win about 55 percent of their remaining games and finish with between 95 and 100 wins. So, the division is very much up for grabs.
This is actually about debunking the notion that Clemens has anything to do with that possibility. For one, he’s only going to play between 20 and 25 games, if he remains healthy. At that, he’s never going to pitch more than seven innings in any single game. At best, he’s going to help the MFY win five or six more games than they might have with any number of decent Triple-A pitchers in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. And it could be argued that if the MFY batters hit like they have the last 20 days that just about any pitcher who gives them five innings and five runs (a 9.00 ERA) would suffice.
And the proof is in Bill James’ Pythagorean W-L formula. It’s foundation is the same as the old Pythagorean Theorum from high school Algebra I: A(squared) + B(squared) = C(squared). James’ theory is that a team’s record should reflect its scoring differential. Teams that score more than they allow should have winning records, and the greater the difference the greater the winning percentage.
Well, on May 29 — when the MFY were 14.5 games back and tied for last place with the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays — they had scored 258 runs and allowed just 239. (Comparatively, with the same record the Devil Rays had scored just 232 and allowed 308.) Based on James’ equation (and we’ll use his original factor of 2) the MFY should have had a winning percentage of .519, so instead of 21-29 the MFY should have been 26-24. Conversely, the Red Sox’s expected W/L was 30-21 rather than their 36-15 record. THe differences are essentially reflected by their different successes/failures in close ballgames.
Fast-forward two weeks, and both teams are playing much more like their expected W/L records. The MFY are 35-32 with an ExW/L of 37-30. The Red Sox are 44-24 compared to an ExW/L of 39-29.
Are the Red Sox better? Slightly, but we should have expected the AL East race to get closer. And you can’t rule the MFY out until they trail by double digits in the loss column with less than two months to play.